400 Million Rural Peasants to Flood Coastal Chinese Cities by 2020

Human tide expected to flood affluent coastal cities
Shi Jiangtao
26 May 2005
South China Morning Post

Mainland cities are expected to see an influx of 400 million people from rural areas by 2020, with nearly half flowing into affluent coastal areas, according to a National Development and Reform Commission economist.

Wang Yiming , a vice-president of the commission's macroeconomic research institute, told a forum on Beijing's city planning that three coastal regions - the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim - had gained more from economic reforms than other areas.

"The three key economic regions, which make up 3 per cent of the country's land area and about 12 per cent of the country's total population, accounted for 40 per cent of the nation's gross domestic product last year," Mr Wang said.

Of the US$60 billion in foreign investment attracted to the mainland, the Yangtze River Delta area earned 42 per cent. As the mainland's two key export bases, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, accounted for nearly 70 per cent of exports last year.

As a result of the growing disparity between coastal areas and other areas, more migrant workers would flock to Shanghai, Guangdong and Beijing, Mr Wang said.

Chen Huai , director of the Ministry of Construction's Policy Study Centre, told the forum mainland achievements during the past two decades should be partly attributed to the success of its urban planning.

"However, it is also fair to say that almost all the difficulties China faces in its strategic development are closely related to flaws in urban planning, such as real estate, traffic and eviction problems."

He said Beijing municipal authorities had made the correct decision in opting for a multi-centre strategy for its future development.

James Jao, an architect and former New York city planning commissioner, said urban planners needed to pay more attention to sustainable development.>