The future development/reconstruction of Baghdad

Things are bad now, but experience from other civil wars shows that when the war ends, and security improves, refugees begin to return along with capital and pent-up demand for development. We've seen this pattern in such war-torn cities as Beirut, Juba (Sudan), Kabul (to some extent), Saigon, Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan), and many others. It is not always a fast process - it can take a while. But when war ends, cities tend to become boomtowns. Commerce that was suppressed by violence resumes, returning exiles bring back money and expertise, and there is a big demand for new construction and repairs/redevelopment of older construction.

I think Baghdad will be the same. It will eventually come through the violence, and will become a boomtown. The structural factors are there - it is already a huge city (around 7 million people), there is a lot of vacant/unused land within the Baghdad city plain (and around the edges), there is already a somewhat modern motorway network, and the Iraqi birth rate is still very high. It is on a major river. The city already has quite a few interesting monuments, a major international airport, a large university system, and direct road access to Amman, Damascus, and Kuwait City. Once the city achieves peace, these things will take off.

But what will the reconstruction of Baghdad look like?

Here are some screen captures of Baghdad from Google Earth, along with brief comments. What do YOU think will happen when the city redevelops?

This is an overview of the urban area. The airport is in the southwest, Sadr City is in the northeast, and the Green Zone is the clump of land on the west side of the river which points into the Karada peninsula.



Here is a motorway interchange in the city. Baghdad's road network has several routes that were built to "western standards" back in the 1970's and 80's.



What will the "new Baghdad" look like once reconstruction takes hold after the war?>